Exports grow, but for how long?
2010-03-12 09:18:09Source:Global TimesAuthor:
China's exports saw fast growth in February, showing rising demand as economies emerge from the global crisis, but experts said it is still early to tell if the upswing will be sustained.
Exports in February reached $94.52 billion, up 45.7 percent from the previous year, according to figures released by the General Administration of Customs Wednesday.
It was the third consecutive month of growth in exports.
"The growth is not beyond our market expectation," said Cao Yuanzheng, chief economist at Bank of China International.
Cao attributed the growth mainly to recovering global economies. He said US businesses are restocking their inventories.
PingAn Securities predicted in a report last month that US enterprises could replenish their inventories in the first half of the year, with enterprises in other developed countries replenishing theirs till the third quarter.
However, Zhao Xijun, the deputy director of the Finance and Securities Research Institute at Renmin University of China, Wednesday told the Global Times that it is hard to say whether or not China's exports are seeing a strong recovery.
"Europe's debt crisis is still going, which will have an uncertain impact on Chinese exports," Zhao said.
Customs also said the import sum in February reached $86.91 billion, up 44.7 percent from the year before and higher than the 21 percent growth in January. It was the fourth consecutive month of growth.
February's growth rate was boosted in comparison with weak trade from last year, when the global downturn was at its height, said Zhu Jianfang, chief economist for CITIC Securities in Beijing.
Domestic demand has maintained strong growth due to policies taken by the government, Zhu said.
However, Cao from Bank of China International attributed the rising import value to the growing price of raw materials such as oil.
In the coming months, imports growth will not be so fast, Wei Fengchun from CITIC Securities said.
"China is making an adjustment on industry and the demand on investment and bulk commodities will slow down, but imports involved with consumption will increase," Wei was quoted as saying by the official Xinhua News Agency Wednesday.
The February figures showed the trade surplus narrowed from $14.17 billion in January to $7.6 billion.
Trade surplus for the whole year will grow, but the growth will be less than 5 percent, Cao predicted.
Zhu from CITIC Securities said the government will also pursue a balance between imports and exports.
Exports in February reached $94.52 billion, up 45.7 percent from the previous year, according to figures released by the General Administration of Customs Wednesday.
It was the third consecutive month of growth in exports.
"The growth is not beyond our market expectation," said Cao Yuanzheng, chief economist at Bank of China International.
Cao attributed the growth mainly to recovering global economies. He said US businesses are restocking their inventories.
PingAn Securities predicted in a report last month that US enterprises could replenish their inventories in the first half of the year, with enterprises in other developed countries replenishing theirs till the third quarter.
However, Zhao Xijun, the deputy director of the Finance and Securities Research Institute at Renmin University of China, Wednesday told the Global Times that it is hard to say whether or not China's exports are seeing a strong recovery.
"Europe's debt crisis is still going, which will have an uncertain impact on Chinese exports," Zhao said.
Customs also said the import sum in February reached $86.91 billion, up 44.7 percent from the year before and higher than the 21 percent growth in January. It was the fourth consecutive month of growth.
February's growth rate was boosted in comparison with weak trade from last year, when the global downturn was at its height, said Zhu Jianfang, chief economist for CITIC Securities in Beijing.
Domestic demand has maintained strong growth due to policies taken by the government, Zhu said.
However, Cao from Bank of China International attributed the rising import value to the growing price of raw materials such as oil.
In the coming months, imports growth will not be so fast, Wei Fengchun from CITIC Securities said.
"China is making an adjustment on industry and the demand on investment and bulk commodities will slow down, but imports involved with consumption will increase," Wei was quoted as saying by the official Xinhua News Agency Wednesday.
The February figures showed the trade surplus narrowed from $14.17 billion in January to $7.6 billion.
Trade surplus for the whole year will grow, but the growth will be less than 5 percent, Cao predicted.
Zhu from CITIC Securities said the government will also pursue a balance between imports and exports.
