GDP growth to exceed 8% in 2010: analysts

China's GDP growth in 2010 is expected to exceed 8 percent as exports bounce back, analysts said.

GDP is estimated to grow between 8 to 9 percent this year, and further accelerate to about 10.1 percent next year, with average growth around 9 percent in the five years to come, Lu Ting, chief economist for Bank of America Merrill Lynch, said in the China Securities News Sunday.

Domestic consumption next year is expected to maintain the same level as 2009, Lu said.

Exports will make the difference between this year and next year's GDP growth, according to Lu. Compared with the estimated overall negative 17 percent drop this year, exports are expected to grow by 5 to 10 percent in 2010, Lu added.

China's export structure is changing. While China's exports to the US and the European Union are declining, those to emerging markets have been going up, Lu noted.

Export enterprises in coastal areas are increasing their exports to Middle Eastern and African countries, said Guo Tianyong, a professor at the Central University of Finance and Economics.

But the influence of developing countries should not be over exaggerated, warned Lu, saying that the US and the EU were still the major players.

"We estimate that the US and the European economies will all grow in the fourth quarter, largely due to the governments' stimulus plans, the effects of which, however, will diminish next year," Lu said.

Guo predicted only 9 percent GDP growth next year in view of future reduced government investment in fixed assets. He estimated that the fixed assets investment growth would be below 30 percent. "Due to constraints on local government's financing, investment growth will drop substantially compared with this year," Guo said.